Opportunity knocks?

“The worst year on record? Maybe…”

That was the start of TFR’s Review of the Year in 1999, in the aftermath of the financial crisis that engulfed parts of Asia, Russia and Eastern Europe. Ten years’ later and the story is almost the same – only the region has changed, although the magnitude is many times greater.

The lessons learnt during the Asian financial crisis ten years ago have arguably contributed to the region’s growing strength today. During the past decade, governments have been mindful of the need to reign in the worst potential excesses of their banking sectors, while being careful not to run-up large deficits.

In the corporate sector, Standard Chartered’s Tan Kah Chye observes that a corporate in the Philippines, for example, will today eschew foreign currency financing, however enticing the rate, because of the risks involved. As they learnt the hard way ten years ago, if the peso collapses in value, the cost of servicing the foreign-currency debt can be crippling.

If only such hard lessons had been learnt in Western capitals – not to mention among the banking fraternities of Iceland, Ireland, Scotland and a number of countries in Eastern Europe.

This time, however, it is not another local difficulty, but the reflection of epoc-changing times: the time is up for Europe and America as wealth, power and influence flows inexorably east.

It may represent little more than an ‘equalisation’ of wealth, but such shifts are rarely smooth and pain-free. Yet in the turbulence over the next few years there will be much opportunity.

The question, as always, is identifying and exploiting them.

TFR Deals of the Year Awards
The deadline for the TFR Deals of the Year Awards has been extended until the new year. You now have until midnight on 5 January to submit your contenders. For more information see page 12.

Graeme Burton
Managing editor

Features

Review of the Year: 2009, like the girl with a curl... This article is for subscribers only
Geoffrey Wynne looks back over the past 12 months in trade finance – a year that was great for some and a nightmare for others.

The big interview: Tan Kah Chye This article is for subscribers only
Tan Kah Chye, Global Head of Trade, Transaction Banking, at Standard Chartered, launches a passionate defence of trade finance.

Review of the year: The final countdown (for 2009) Free
Nick Grandage counts down the top ten most frequently asked questions during 2009.

Feature: Mercosur This article is for subscribers only
The Mercosur free-trade agreement between Latin America’s biggest economies has helped increase trade, but rivalries and divisions remain. By Ivan Castano.

Review of the year: Extreme sport This article is for subscribers only
It was a year of highs and lows, opening in the aftermath of the post-Lehman Brothers crash in world trade, but ending much, much busier. TFR talks to five trade finance professionals for their opinions of the year in review.

Regulars

The last word: Is the end nigh? This article is for subscribers only
Is it the beginning of the end or merely the end of the beginning? Cynicus Economicus looks back at the economic crisis over the past year – and forward to 2010.

The art of forfaiting: What a difference a year makes This article is for subscribers only
Richard Willsher looks back on a traumatic year for forfaiting and trade finance – and to the challenges that lie ahead.

Omni Bridgeway: Emerging market debt pricing This article is for subscribers only
The latest emerging market debt pricing figures from specialists Omni Bridgeway.

Omni Bridgeway Commentary, December 2009 This article is for subscribers only
In February 2009, Morgan Tsvangirai, the current Prime Minister of Zimbabwe, formed a power-sharing government with long-standing President Robert Mugabe.

Marsh: Credit Risk Appetite for Emerging Markets – December 2009 This article is for subscribers only
The volume of trade transactions in the private market continues to be at a low level, but we have seen a slight reduction in overall pricing during the past month.

Market view: Apocalypse postponed This article is for subscribers only
In 2007, HSBC’s Stuart Nivison returned to the UK after 18 years working in the Far East. Then all hell broke loose...

60-second interview: Nick Cullen This article is for subscribers only
Nick Cullen discusses the forfaiting market at the end of a turbulent year.