Country-risk appetite, March 2006

The analysis from Standard Bank plc:

Have we finally seen the bottom of the curve for the main emerging markets? Certainly resistance has been seen in Turkey, although the top-tier names in Russia and Kazakhstan still appear to be able to push the boundaries further.

Perhaps the biggest recent development has been the Iranian nuclear issue. Few deals are being seen in the secondary market, with all at increased pricing levels. Some major project-related financings for Iranian borrowers are being re-evaluated as the major ECAs and DFIs sit on the fence awaiting the UN decision expected in March.

Several deals have been concluded in Ukraine notwithstanding the forthcoming presidential elections, with some recent syndications being oversubscribed even at reduced pricing levels.

Asia remains relatively quiet. The Americas are becoming increasingly active, particularly for some of the more structured corporate deals.

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