denotes premium content | Dec 5 2008 Trade & Forfaiting Review magazine archive
Volume 10 Issue 3
Although this issue has traditionally devoted itself to a retrospective look at the past twelve months in trade, this year we glance to the future with an analysis of where the markets are headed over the coming year.
With market talk increasingly centered on the prospect of greater price volatility in the commodity sector, our lead cover story examines what steps commodity financiers are taking to mitigate price fluctuations, (‘Whither commodity risk?’).
Volatility is also on the lips of the political risk insurance market where the consensus is that we’re nearing the end of a relatively benign, stable and liquid period. As Andrew Underwood at Hiscox notes, while we can’t predict what will happen, at this stage in the cycle where there is such liquidity and confidence is so high, history tells us something will occur.
Such is the feeling that we’re on the edge of a major event that Underwood says Hiscox is “concerned” about how it will navigate for the next couple of years. A sentiment that is shared by John Salanger at AIG who believes some firms may be unprepared for higher premiums should the market shift from soft to hard pricing (see ‘Riskier business’).
Elsewhere, Trade & Forfaiting Review discovers what’s on the minds of forfaiters in ‘Forfaiters’ wish lists’; and Erika Morphy hears what’s shaping the export finance market in ‘Extending export finance past the export’.
Meanwhile, Bruce Proctor at JPMorgan Chase looks to the future of trade technology in ‘2020 Vision’. And, following the recent approval of UCP 600 in Paris, Denton Wilde Sapte’s Geoffrey Wynne explores the revision and considers whether opportunities were missed (‘UCP 600 – As good as it gets?’).
Moreover, in our annual legal review, Linklaters lawyers Mirthe van Kesteren and Allegra Miles address the year’s key legal developments with a look ahead to what we can expect in 2007 (‘Basel II and beyond’).
As always, we hope you enjoy this issue. TFR returns in February with the ‘Deals of the Year’. In the meantime, we wish you all the very best for a peaceful and prosperous 2007.
Michele Martensen, Editor
Features
Basel II and beyond
Mirthe van Kesteren, managing associate, banking, and Allegra Miles, professional support lawyer in the London office of Linklaters, take a look at the year’s legal developments and assess their impact on the trade finance arena.
UCP 600 – As good as it gets?
Following the recent approval of UCP 600 in Paris, Geoffrey Wynne, partner in the trade and export finance group at Denton Wilde Sapte in London, provides an overview of some of the changes and provisions post UCP 500 and considers whether we should have expected more.
2020 vision
Bruce Proctor, JPMorgan Chase Global Trade Services, New York, looks to the future of trade technology.
Extending export finance past the export
New technology, processes and attitudes have introduced innovations in pre-export finance. 2007 will be the year when these same forces start to remake post-export finance, writes Erika Morphy.
Forfaiters’ wish lists 2007
Without exception most forfaiters wish for the good old days when margins were high and markets were robust. However as forfaiters evolve their business models to adjust to new realities, their wish lists remain surprisingly fundamental. Amanda Greene reports.
Riskier business
It doesn’t take a genius to work out the world is becoming increasingly dangerous. But according to the people who make it their business to monitor such things, history tell us we could very well be on the verge of a major event. Amanda Greene reports.
Whither commodity risk?
Until recently the only direction commodity prices moved was up. Now, more volatility appears to be entering the markets and price direction is less certain. But that is not the only risk on the minds of commodity producers and bankers. While 2007 is still expected to be a flush market – the consensus is that a bumpier road lies ahead. Erika Morphy reports.
Nuts and bolts banking makes a comeback
Regulatory changes are becoming increasingly influential as banks look to meet the operational needs of their clients. Yet, as Peter Sargent, director of cash and trade sales for Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets explains, banks need to blend an understanding of both changes and client needs in order to update their current offering.
Regulars
Talking point
Ace Banker takes a call from a trade journalist during the run-up to Christmas…
60-second interview: Christophe Lhermitte
You're head of research and product development on BNP Paribas’ Energy Commodities Export Project. From your perch in the industry, what do you think will happen with commodity prices in 2007?
Letter from Hong Kong: David Sullivan
“Why are you retiring?” asked my thirty-something friend Michael as we tried to squeeze into one those very small tables at a restaurant that also supplies very small portions of food – the ‘executive set lunch’ for the executive who is too busy to remember what he ate.
Supply chain finance: developing a new mindset
Paradoxically, perhaps, the power of trading relationships has grown stronger as globalisation has increased. Financial institutions should respond with financing models that recognise the strength of the overall supply chain, not just of individual entities, writes Sainath Radhakrishnan, head of FI trade outsourcing solutions at ABN Amro in London.
